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As always, there was considerable positivity and hope for India when they arrived in Doha at the start of the year. The AFC Asian Cup 2023 seemed like an opportunity to showcase the progress made under Igor Stimac over the past year or so.
However, the narrative has drastically shifted in the last 10 days, focusing on India’s recurring lack of progress and even questions about Stimac’s future. India were dumped out of the continental tournament with zero points, zero goals, and six goals conceded.
Certainly, the Blue Tigers faced significant setbacks before the competition, with key players like Anwar Ali, Jeakson Singh, Ashique Kuruniyan, and Sahal Abdul Samad ruled out. India also found themselves in the most challenging group of the Asian Cup, competing against Australia (ranked 25), Uzbekistan (ranked 68), and Syria (ranked 91).
However, the primary concern was not only the results but also how the Blue Tigers presented themselves on the grand stage.
The performances were a far cry from the success and renewed hope witnessed in 2023. It appears that the recurring issue of progress followed by setbacks has resurfaced, keeping Indian football in a state of stagnation for the past three decades or so.
There are undoubtedly deeper problems in Indian football, but the immediate focus is on analyzing the Asian Cup - a tournament that held great promise but ultimately left everyone overwhelmed with disappointment.
The positives
Given India’s struggles in the Asian Cup, the positives are rather limited. But despite the issues leading up to the first game, the first half against the Socceroos showcased a resilient spirit - a characteristic increasingly evident in the national team over the past year.
Criticisms aside, Stimac certainly got his tactical approach spot on. With expectations of Australia’s dominance, India, shaping up in a compact 4-4-2 medium-block, looked to restrict central access for their opponents. Furthermore, they were well-drilled to counter Australia’s positional rotations, especially between the full-back, winger, and central midfielder.
But the most significant positive was the defensive organization in the first half, led by Sandesh Jhingan. The Blue Tigers showed commitment and determination at the back, leaving Graham Arnold visibly frustrated on the sidelines, while the Aussies looked flustered in possession.
While Australia’s substitutes, coupled with improved intensity in the second half, overwhelmed India, the game was seen as a step in the right direction both physically and tactically.
The second game against Uzbekistan also offered positives despite the 3-0 scoreline. Defensive lapses led to two early goals, yet India’s response against a team of Uzbekistan’s caliber team was promising.
Notably, the Blue Tigers displayed courage on the ball and matched Uzbekistan technically in some periods of the game. Recurring patterns developed over the past two years, combined with accurate and quick passes, resulted in India having more possession than their opponents.
Looking at the bigger picture, India’s new-found squad depth provides a foundation for future development. Players like Naorem Mahesh Singh, Apuia Ralte, and Lallianzuala Chhangte showcased their potential in glimpses, and they will be expected to improve further with more experience in the upcoming year.
Disparity in technical and physical aspects
India have made significant improvements in the physical aspect since Igor Stimac’s arrival. This was evident when they faced teams like Lebanon, Kuwait, and Iraq in the past year, where they were able to compete toe-to-toe against stronger opponents.
However, despite this progress, a noticeable gap emerged when facing all three opponents in the Asian Cup. Whether in midfield or upfront, the Blue Tigers were consistently pressured into conceding possession or allowing their opponents to pass through with ease.
While they performed decently in winning second balls and duels during the first half against Australia, the challenge remains to sustain that level of play for the entire 90 minutes. Against Uzbekistan and Syria, the gap widened, with the likes of Apuia, Suresh Singh Wangjam, Deepak Tangri, Manvir Singh, Naorem Mahesh Singh, and Anirudh Thapa being consistently outmuscled and outpaced.
The technical aspect of the game further unveiled the struggles, as the Blue Tigers were simply not at the level to compete against the three teams. Disappointing the majority of supporters was not India losing territorial control, but the failure to demonstrate intent with the ball.
The stats back it up. India struggled to retain the ball against Australia, managing just two chains with at least 10 passes, compared to Australia’s 23.
Although there was improvement against Uzbekistan, it’s fair to note that the White Wolves took their foot off the gas after scoring three goals.
The performance against Syria, who are ranked just ten places below India, was poor, characterized by an inability to hold the ball and poor decision-making in the final third.
Overall, India ranks at the bottom among all 24 teams in terms of progressive passes, final third entries, and final third passes. The Blue Tigers had only 22 shots, with just 11 on target. Among those, they garnered a mere 1.2 xG (expected goals), translating to roughly 0.05 xG per shot. This indicates that while India struggled to take shots, those attempts even failed to trouble the opposition goalkeeper.
The lack of chance creation and attacking patterns against top teams is a cause for concern, as India appeared lost against Australia and Syria. This underscores not only a deficiency in attacking patterns but more importantly, a lack of technical prowess to compete with Asia’s top teams, let alone those in the elite category.
Igor Stimac has burning questions to answer
In the aftermath of the game against Syria, Stimac revealed that he was no magician, emphasizing the need for patience to turn things around. While the ultimate issues extend far beyond what he can address, there are concerns about the questionable nature of his approach in the Asian Cup.
It seemed as though he discarded his beliefs and the patterns developed over the past two years, leaving India appearing clueless in possession.
India also adopted three different approaches in three different games. In the first game, they understandably took a defensive stance, focusing on restricting Australia, who were superior in every aspect.
However, his decision to start the game with high intensity against Uzbekistan, also one of Asia’s elite, also failed. Uzbekistan consistently took advantage of India’s poor pressing and exploited gaps in midfield, resulting in a 3-0 scoreline at the end of the first half.
Meanwhile, the attempt to take a direct approach against Syria, who did not press with intent compared to Australia and Uzbekistan, also backfired massively.
There are numerous unanswered questions, as has been the case in Indian football for a long time now. Stimac’s failure to adapt tactically, especially in the middle of games, is something that hasn’t helped India, despite all the evident gaps in physical and technical aspects.
Ultimately, the supporters did not expect India to breeze through the group but rather anticipated a fight and evidence that the team has improved since their Asian Cup campaign 13 years ago. However, that was simply not the case in another major tournament.
Despite this setback, a flicker of optimism remains, as India stands at the threshold of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Qualifiers’ third round, offering Stimac another opportunity to address the burning questions.
(All the statistics taken from @totalf0otball, @statpeekers on X and asianfootball.org).
