Carlos Sainz to Mercedes: Why the move will make no sense

If the Italian media is to be believed, Carlos Sainz to Mercedes is a done deal at the moment. The Spaniard's Ferrari contract expires at the end of the season and will be replaced on the team by Lewis Hamilton next season.

With Carlos Sainz already fighting for his seat, the driver has produced some brilliant drives. He's finished on the podium in all three races and has been the better driver at Ferrari.

In all of this, Sainz's stock is high, and he has reportedly had conversations with multiple teams on the grid. These teams include Mercedes, which is looking to find an able replacement for Lewis Hamilton.

If we go by what is being written in the Italian media, Carlos Sainz has already signed an agreement with Mercedes and he will be driving for the team in 2025.

More often than not, these Italian publications are on the mark when it comes to breaking these stories. Even Lewis Hamilton's move away from Mercedes was first announced by the Italian media, and hence there is a certain level of credence to what is being claimed.

Having said that, Carlos Sainz's move from Ferrari to Mercedes doesn't make sense. Here's why.

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From Carlos Sainz's perspective

In all fairness, the Carlos Sainz to Mercedes move has 'short-term' fix written all over it. The Spaniard is not getting a long-term contract with the German team, and there's no way he's putting himself in a situation where he becomes the trusted team leader.

For Mercedes, George Russell is already a driver that the team would back to score big when the car sorts itself out. In the second seat, the German team has its eyes set on Kimi Antonelli. The young Italian hasn't had too many F2 races, but even with that limited exposure, it's undeniable that Kimi is something special.

Toto Wolff will not want to make the same mistake that he did with Max Verstappen and leave Kimi Antonelli in the wild for far too long. The ideal scenario would be to give him a year at Williams and then progress him to Mercedes, where he can be nurtured into something brilliant.

In all of this, Carlos Sainz gets a one-year contract with Mercedes and an option of another year for Kimi, who needs more time to evolve (this is exactly what is being reported at this stage). This scenario is disastrous for the Spaniard because he will have just one year to show how good he can be against George Russell. George has bedded himself in the team and one would favor George to beat Sainz if it came to it.

If the Spaniard goes to Mercedes and loses comprehensively to Russell, then that massively drops his stock. At the same time, the openings at teams like Red Bull or Audi would be closed by then. Carlos Sainz would then be stuck in no-man's land and possibly in a worse position than he finds himself in right now.

All in all, the move makes no sense for Sainz whatsoever.

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From Mercedes' perspective

For Mercedes, however, this is something that can work perfectly, and there is possibly an incentive to go ahead with Carlos Sainz for one year. There is, however, a major risk at play for Toto Wolff. Signing Carlos Sainz means Mercedes will either give Kimi Antonelli another year in F2 or try to bring him into F1 with a Williams seat.

In the past, this would have been a straightforward proposition. It does appear that's not the case anymore. James Vowles has not shown the same level of pliability with Mercedes that perhaps the previous management did.

James has plans to build Williams as a team that's growing, and for that, he wants drivers who are willing to commit to the project. Kimi Antonelli will not be that name as the shadow of Mercedes will always loom large.

If Toto Wolff can't place Antonelli at Williams, then he would not want a repeat of the situation where he got stuck with another young driver in the past (Max Verstappen). If Kimi Antonelli is a driver ready to take on the world of F1, then it's better that Mercedes starts building the team around him and not have stopgap options like Carlos Sainz in place.