R Ashwin might no longer be India's best spin-bowling bet at the T20 World Cup

As the rain relented in Adelaide and the players walked back out, all eyes turned to Ravichandran Ashwin. India had other bowling match-winners on the park but this was the kind of situation that saw the Men In Blue prefer Ashwin over Yuzvendra Chahal.

The off-spinner had two left-handers to tackle in Najmul Hossain Shanto and Shakib Al Hasan. The next batter in, Afif Hossain, also batted left-handed, meaning that Ashwin found himself in his most preferred habitat in the shortest format. It was, in many ways, the kind of match-up the cricketing world fantasizes about and hopes comes about, just so that their initial thinking is vindicated.

A few days ago, something similar had materialized. India had been shot out for a middling total by South Africa but when Arshdeep Singh hit back with a pair of quick wickets in his first over, the Proteas’ boat wobbled. David Miller, quite often their man for crisis, was a scalp India dearly needed to tilt the game their way. And in Ashwin, they thought they had the best off-spinner in the world to left-handed batters.

That assessment is correct on a lot of different levels. Throughout his Test career, the Rajasthan Royals tweaker has relished bowling against left-handed batters. He has 221 wickets (out of 442) of left-handed batters, which is a significant achievement considering they are not as common a breed as right-handers.

In T20 cricket, though, there is hardly a black and white answer. All signs point towards Ashwin being effective against left-handed batters and providing his team a novel option to break games open. But a closer look at his statistics, especially since 2021, paint a different story altogether.

Back to the aforementioned matches for now. In the two overs that Ashwin bowled against Bangladesh, he conceded 19 runs without picking up a wicket, despite bowling to three different left-handed batters. His economy rate of 9.5 was also a touch higher than what the Tigers required for victory.

Against South Africa, the numbers were even more damning. Yes, he bowled the high-pressure 18th over – an over where you would usually have your pacers operating. But that only came about because he was thumped for two sixes in his previous over – one by Aiden Markram, and the other by Miller (a left-hander, by the way).

In the 18th over, Ashwin was then clattered over his head twice, in the space of two balls by Miller to tighten South Africa’s grip and end India’s faint hopes of success. India did not play Axar Patel in that game because of the presence of Miller, Quinton de Kock and Rilee Rossouw. But if getting hit for three sixes was acceptable, maybe he could have done a better job, both with the bat and the ball.

R Ashwin has not dismissed many left-handers n T20s since 2021

Ashwin has developed a habit of wanting to just keep things tight in the shortest format, even against left-handers. Since the start of 2021, he has bowled 473 balls across 43 innings and has only picked up 18 wickets, roughly equating to a wicket every 26.2 balls. This is more than what any bowler can bowl in a T20I game.

The economy rate, which stands at 6.34 is good. But the wickets column is the worry, considering a favourable match-up is usually one where the bowler fancies his chances of taking wickets against a particular batter or style of batters. Not because he likes his chances of keeping the runs down.

T20 cricket evolves at every possible stage. That evolution, at this T20 World Cup, has taken teams back to a slightly old-school approach, where preserving wickets in the powerplay has again become important. The lack of spin means that the middle overs are being targeted a lot more, and the explosion at the death has been considerable because of the true wickets and the vast expanses of space at every venue.

So, the need to get wickets throughout an innings has never been greater. Ashwin anyway does not bowl wicket-taking lines to right-handers. And based on what has happened at this T20 World Cup, it seems he is not inclined to bowl positively to left-handed batters either. If he is being played because he adds batting security, then playing Axar and adding Deepak Hooda might be a better decision, considering more bases are covered.

The other alternative is to replace the off-spinner by Chahal, who has enjoyed bowling in these conditions previously, albeit in another format. While it is tough to decipher how exactly he will fare, he will most certainly give the ball a lot more air and will force the batters to make a decision.

Since the start of 2021, Chahal has bowled 423 balls to left-handed batters in all T20s, and has snapped up 22 wickets at a strike rate of 19.22. His economy rate of 7.44 is not as good as Ashwin’s but is not bad enough to be omitted altogether, that too for a notion that is nowhere near coming to fruition.

Chahal could concede a few extra runs on the odd occasion but on days when he will get it right, he will pick up 2-3 wickets. Ashwin, as things stand, seems like he can only pick one wicket on a good day and concede 20 runs. On bad days, well, India have already seen what can happen. It does not feel a worthwhile trade-off at all.

Thus, with each passing game, it is seeming like Ashwin might not be India’s best spin-bowling bet at the T20 World Cup. He has a fabulous record in Test cricket and no one is taking anything away from that fact. In that format, he has built a living outwitting left-handers. But in T20Is, he is just not doing enough, and more troublingly, seems to not be trying enough to get wickets.

In a relatively inexperienced bowling unit, India needed him to stand up, pick wickets regularly and lead the attack. He has fallen well short of those expectations, so far.