2023 World Cup qualification scenarios: What Pakistan, Afghanistan, and New Zealand need to do to reach the semi-finals

Five-time champions Australia became the third team to qualify for the semi-finals of the 2023 World Cup following their three-wicket win over Afghanistan at the Wankhede Stadium in Mumbai on Tuesday. The Aussies now have 12 points from eight matches, with a net run rate of +0.861, and are third in the points table.

Earlier, hosts India and South Africa became the first two teams to book their place in the final four. The Men in Blue have been in terrific form and are the only team to have not lost a single match in the World Cup so far. They are on top of the points table with 16 points from eight matches and a net run rate of +2.456.

The Proteas are second in the 2023 World Cup points table, with 12 points from eight games. Their only losses have come against the Netherlands (38 runs) and India (243 runs) in their last league game in Kolkata.

Speaking of Australia, they were in big trouble in the match against Afghanistan on Tuesday. Chasing 292, they crumbed to 91/7. However, Glenn Maxwell’s incredible 201* off 128 balls, featuring 21 fours and 10 sixes, lifted them to a three-wicket win and also confirmed a place for the Aussies in the semi-finals.

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New Zealand, Pakistan, and Afghanistan jostle for the last 2023 World Cup semi-final berth

With India, South Africa, and Australia already in the semi-finals, New Zealand, Pakistan, and Afghanistan will have to battle it out to clinch the fourth place. All three sides have to play one league game each. [The Netherlands are also in with a mathematical chance, but practically they are all but out of it].

On that note, let’s analyze what New Zealand, Pakistan, and Afghanistan need to do to clinch the remaining semi-final berth.

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New Zealand (8 points, NRR +0.398)

New Zealand’s impressive net run rate could help their push for finishing in the top four of the 2023 World Cup points table. (Pic: AP)

New Zealand have played eight matches in the 2023 World Cup so far, winning four and losing four. They began the tournament with four wins, but have lost their last four matches in a row. They were a bit unlucky in the last game as Pakistan won a rain-shortened game by 21 runs [DLS method]. However, they still have a healthy net run rate of +0.398.

If New Zealand beat Sri Lanka in their last league game on November 9 and Pakistan and Afghanistan lose their matches, the Kiwis will qualify for the semi-finals of the 2023 World Cup. In this scenario, New Zealand will finish the league stage with 10 points, while Pakistan and Afghanistan will be stuck on eight.

If the Kiwis lose their last league game to Sri Lanka, they will need Pakistan and Afghanistan to lose their respective matches. In this case, all three teams will end with eight points each. The net run rate scenario will then come into the picture. New Zealand are best placed if such a situation arises. They have a net run rate of +0.398 in comparison to Pakistan’s +0.036 and Afghanistan’s -0.338.

If New Zealand lose their last match and either Pakistan or Afghanistan win their last league clash, the winning side will go through to the semis, knocking out the Kiwis. If New Zealand lose and both Pakistan and Afghanistan win, the net rate will decide who between Pakistan and Afghanistan finishes in the top four.

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Pakistan (8 points, NRR +0.036)

Pakistan stayed alive in the 2023 World Cup with a win over New Zealand in a rain-shortened game. (Pic: AP)

Like New Zealand, Pakistan also have eight points, but with a net run rate of +0.036. Their last league encounter in the 2023 World Cup will be against England at Eden Gardens in Kolkata on November 11.

If Pakistan win the match and New Zealand and Afghanistan lose theirs, Babar Azam and company will make the semi-finals by virtue of finishing on top 10 points, while New Zealand and Afghanistan will be struck on eight.

However, if Pakistan lose, they will also need New Zealand and Afghanistan to lose their matches, bringing the net run rate into the picture. The Kiwis would be at an advantage with a healthy net run rate.

According to Cricbuzz, even if New Zealand beat Sri Lanka by one run, Pakistan would need to beat England by 130+ runs to surpass the Kiwis’ run rate - this is assuming the team bats first and scores 300.

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Afghanistan (8 points, NRR -0.338 )

Glenn Maxwell’s brilliance stunned Afghanistan in the 2023 World Cup match on Tuesday, November 7. (Pic: AP)

Afghanistan also have eight points from eight matches in the 2023 World Cup, but their net run rate of -0.338 puts them at a disadvantage.

The best-case scenario for Afghanistan to finish in the top four will be to beat South Africa in their last league match on November 10 and also hope that Pakistan and New Zealand lose their respective games. That way, the net run rate will not come into play and Afghanistan would qualify with 10 points.

In case Afghanistan go down to the Proteas, they will need Pakistan and New Zealand to also lose their matches. However, their chances of qualification are slim in this scenario since New Zealand and Pakistan have a much better net run rate in comparison to Afghanistan.

If New Zealand beat Sri Lanka by even one run, Afghanistan will need to hammer beat South Africa by 273+ runs to go past Kiwis’ net run rate (assuming they bat first and score 300).

Even if Afghanistan lose by one run, they would need Pakistan to lose by 136-plus runs and New Zealand by 266-plus runs to surpass the two teams on NRR (this is assuming teams are chasing 300).