2023 World Cup qualification scenarios: What the 6 teams in contention need to do to reach the semi-finals

The 2023 World Cup is nearing the conclusion of the league stage. So far, 37 of the 45 league-stage matches have been completed. Hosts Team India and South Africa have already qualified for the semi-final. While the Men in Blue are first in the points table with 16 points from eight matches, the Proteas are second, having registered 12 points from eight games.

On the other hand, defending champions England and Bangladesh have already been knocked out of the 2023 World Cup. The Englishmen are last in the points table with just a solitary win after seven matches. Bangladesh are placed ninth, with two points from seven games, and are above England only due to the net run rate scenario.

Six teams are still in still in contention for a place in the top four. Here’s a detailed look at the qualification scenarios with regard to reaching the 2023 World Cup semi-finals.

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Australia

Five-time champion Australia are third in the 2023 World Cup stnadings with 10 points (five wins, two losses) from five matches and a net run rate of +0.924. Australia have two more matches to go in the league stage against Afghanistan and Bangladesh.

If they win one of the two games, they will be assured of semi-final qualification. Another victory will see them finish on 12 points. This is because, among the other five contenders, only Afghanistan can reach 12 points if they win their remaining two games.

In the worst-case scenario of Australia losing both their remaining matches, they will finish on 10 points. They will then need to finish with a higher net run rate than at least two of the other teams that can also finish on 10 points - New Zealand, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.

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New Zealand

New Zealand have lost their way after a sensational start. (Pic: AP)

2019 runners-up New Zealand are currently fourth in the points table with eight points (four wins, four losses). They began the World Cup in brilliant fashion, registering triumphs in their first four games. They have since lost four in a row. The Kiwis, who have a net run rate of +0.398, will play Sri Lanka in their last 2023 World Cup league match.

Their path to qualification has become tricky with the recent losses. Even if they beat Sri Lanka and finish with 10 points, they need to ensure that they have a higher net run rate than at least two of the other teams that can also end with the same number of points - Australia, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.

If they lose to Sri Lanka, New Zealand will need Pakistan (8 points) and Afghanistan (8 points) to lose their remaining matches. Also, they need to have the best run rate among teams that finish with eight points after the league stage.

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Pakistan

Like New Zealand, Pakistan also have eight points, with four wins and four losses. However, they are below the Kiwis in the points table on the net run rate scenario (+0.036). They have one match to play in the 2023 World Cup league stage, which will be against England.

If Pakistan beat England, they will finish on 10 points. However, to qualify, they need to finish with a better net run rate than at least two of the other sides that can also end on 10 points - Australia, New Zealand, and Afghanistan.

In case, they lose their last World Cup league game to England, Pakistan will be stuck on eight points. In such a scenario, they will need New Zealand (8 points) and Afghanistan (8 points) to lose their remaining games and finish with the best run rate among all the sides that end with eight points.

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Afghanistan

Afghanistan have exceeded expectations, registering four wins in seven matches. (Pic: AP)

Following some impressive performances, Afghanistan are sixth in the 2023 World Cup points table, with eight points (four wins, three losses) and a net run rate of -0.330. They have two tough matches coming up against Australia and South Africa respectively.

If they win both games, they will be guaranteed a top-four finish with 12 points. In the event of them winning one game and finishing with 10 points, they will need to have a better net run rate than at least two of the other sides that can also end with 10 points - Australia, New Zealand, and Pakistan.

If Afghanistan lose both the matches and stay on eight points, they will then need New Zealand (8 points) and Pakistan (8 points) to lose all of their remaining matches. Afghanistan will also need to have the best run rate among all sides that finish with eight points to qualify for the semi-finals.

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Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka are languishing at seventh in the 2023 World Cup points table, with four points (two wins, five losses) and a net run rate of -1.162. They have two league matches left against Bangladesh and New Zealand, respectively.

The Lankans have to win both their remaining games and also hope that New Zealand, Pakistan, and Afghanistan don’t win any of their remaining matches. In addition, Sri Lanka will also need to end with a better net run rate than the other sides that finish on eight points.

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Netherlands

The scenario is similar for the Netherlands as well. They are eighth with four points (two wins, five losses) and a net run rate of -1.398. The Dutch have two league games left in the 2023 World Cup against England and India respectively.

To qualify for the semi-final, the Netherlands will need to win both their games and reach eight points. They will also have to hope for New Zealand, Pakistan, and Afghanistan to lose their remaining league clashes. That’s not all though. The Netherlands will also need to have a superior net run rate among all sides that end on eight points.