Mid-season NFL awards (2023):

While the 17-game schedule for each team has thrown off where exactly the mid-way point of the NFL season is, we are through nine of 18 total weeks and we’ve played exactly half of the 272 contests (136). So at this point, it’s time to summarize what has happened here a little bit and hand out all the major awards as if the season ended today.

I’ll once again break down the top three candidates through half of 2023, making my case for each of them, based on watching the tape and looking at the numbers, along with reflecting a little bit on what I predicted just before we kicked off the year. A quick note on that – I could have literally used the cover photo from back then.

Let’s get into it:

Most Valuable Player:

1. Lamar Jackson

2. Patrick Mahomes

3. Tua Tagovailoa

As I proclaimed after seeing the Ravens destroy the Seahawks 37-3 this past Sunday, they are the best team in the NFL right now. We’ll get to the defense a couple of categories from now, but Lamar Jackson is playing the quarterback position at a significantly higher level than he ever did during his MVP campaign back in 2019. Accounting for 14 touchdowns compared to just three interceptions sounds pretty good, but those numbers aren’t even close to encapsulating what he’s meant to this team. Prior to this past Sunday, the Browns, Lions and Seahawks were all top-ten defenses in terms of EPA per play – with Cleveland still at number one. Baltimore outscored those three opponents 103-12 and Lamar didn’t even play a full fourth quarter if you combine the playing time across those three fourth quarters. And I can point to three or four plays in each of those that I’m not sure another QB in the league could’ve made. The Todd Monken offense is running smoothly now, but they certainly needed some time to get there and Lamar navigated them through some tough times, only to not get chances to finish drives as a passer early on and boost his stats. Individually, he leads the league with a 71.5% completion percentage, he’s tied for fourth in yards per attempt (7.7 YPA) and he’s tied for third among ALL players – behind only Jalen Hurts and Christian McCaffrey – in first downs picked up as a runner (32) despite being 31st in attempts. The Ravens could/should really be the only undefeated team right now – and the two losses aren’t on Lamar in the grand scheme of things. Against the Colts, a pass over the middle should have resulted in them setting up a game-winning field goal in overtime, but a blatant pass interference call was missed, and against the Steelers, his receivers dropped eight(!) passes, which directly took three touchdowns off the board basically.

I believe there’s a steep fall from Lamar to the rest of the pack right now. I could think of a couple of skill-position players worthy of consideration, but understanding that this is a quarterback award and treating the Offensive Player of the Year as a separate category for non-QBs, I’m going to stick with that position here. While the Ravens may ultimately snatch it away from them, the 7-2 Chiefs currently own the number one seed in the AFC and while it hasn’t been perfect, Patrick Mahomes has still played at a high level when needed. The story for Kansas City really has been the defense, which is allowing the second-fewest points per game (15.9 PPG), but their quarterback has performed better than his numbers would indicate and has been able to navigate the offense through some murky waters. I would admit that Mahomes had two legitimately bad games – at the Jets and at the Broncos – in which he threw one touchdown compared to four of his eight interceptions. However, his receivers have dropped four more passes (23) than any other group in the league. And looking at their two losses against the Broncos and back in the season-opener against the Lions (when they lost 21:20 without Travis Kelce), he should have had a perfectly-placed 26-yard touchdown to Skyy Moore and a third-down conversion on a crosser to Kadarius Toney, which instead turned into a pick-six on his resume. If those two passes alone are caught, they probably at least win one of those contests. I think the offense definitely feels the loss of former OC Eric Bienemy to some degree and even Mahomes’ one reliable pass-catcher Travis Kelce has been banged up at times. And yet, the Chiefs QB ranks third in EPA per play and two areas he really separates himself in – he easily has the best pressure-to-sack conversion rate (14.6%) and despite their infuriating tendency of getting jet sweeps stuffed on third downs, the Chiefs are fifth in conversion percentage on that down (45.5%), with Mahomes’ ten yards per scramble and 17 first downs as a rusher being a major factor.

That brings us to number three and you can’t feel great about this coming off a season-low 14 points scored by the Dolphins this past Sunday in Germany, even if it came against the Chiefs’ excellent defense. People wanted to eviscerate me three weeks ago, for having Tua as my number seven overall quarterback in the league and tiered him with the “great system guys”. Since then, the offense scored 10 points at Philadelphia and then just had that disappointing performance vs. Kansas City, in which they were shut out in the first half. That 70-burger they put on the Broncos back in week three feels like ages ago and it still pumps up their stats, but he did sit out the entire fourth quarter that day and I’m not going to act like this attack hasn’t been a fireworks show for most of the year. My whole point back when I put together that QB index was that Tua executes that offense at an extremely high level, but when defenses have the edge schematically on certain days and he’s asked to elevate his surroundings, there are some limitations. He still deserves a lot of credit for running the show at such an extremely high level. Miami remains number one in yards and points per drive and game each, as well as yards per play (7.1 YPP). Tagovailoa himself ranks first in passing TDs (19), passer rating (106.4) and second in yards per attempt (8.5 YPA), despite having the shortest time-to-throw (2.38 seconds). His ability to alter arm slots to get the ball out on time, manipulate second-level defenders with his eyes, and attack windows in coverage are as good as it gets. Yet, on top of that, he’s improved his passing outside the numbers and created more off-script, extending plays and delivering big throws off a new or not a clean platform altogether. The Dolphins and their signal-caller have to prove they can defeat true contenders, but head coach Mike McDaniel is continuing to evolve an explosive scheme and Tua is cashing in on the opportunities he’s given.

Honorable mentions: Trevor Lawrence, Josh Allen & Jalen Hurts

Cincinnati Bengals v San Francisco 49ers

(Non-QB) Offensive Player of the Year:

1. Christian McCaffrey

2. A.J. Brown

3. Tyreek Hill

As always, I treat the OPOY award as “who has been the best/most impactful non-quarterback on the offensive side of the ball”, and we have some of the better candidates I can remember in a while. I do CMC has a little bit of separation however and because he plays on a team without a marquee name at quarterback – although it’s insane how people have gone from treating Brock Purdy like Tom Brady to questioning in the matter of just a couple of weeks – he actually has an outside shot at ultimately being among the MVP finalists. The 49ers have lost some shine after losing three straight following their 5-0 start, but they had the ball with the chance to win in two of those, including what should’ve been a game-winning field goal at Cleveland, and McCaffrey has been the driving force of that offense, which ranks third in both EPA per play (0.139) and success rate (50.7). Individually, only Tyreek Hill is averaging more yards from scrimmage per game (118.0 YPG) despite an average depth of target of 0.7 compared to Cheetah’s 10.2 on a league-leading 97 targets. CMC is tied for number one with 13 total touchdowns, he’s gained more total first downs than anybody (56) he has nearly 100 scrimmage yards more than any other RB despite already having had his bye week, and he is number in rushing yards after contact (2.2 YPA) among guys with 100+ touches. So he’s getting massive volume (NFL-high 21.1 touches per game), playing at least 85% of offensive snaps in every one-score game they’ve played other than when he got hurt against the Browns, yet his efficiency is still up there with the very best. He’s a very decisive decision-maker, hits creases at full speed and runs as hard as anybody, while in the passing game, he changes the complexity of how defenses have to approach the 49ers since they can legitimately flex him out wide and attack matchups that way.

Number two here was extremely tough to decide between and it’s pretty much a tie between these two superstar receivers, but I gave A.J. Brown the slight nod because he’s delivered his best when needed most a little more than Tyreek Hill. The Eagles own the best record in the NFL at 8-1 and I don’t think there’s really a question about who their best player has been. This past Sunday ended Brown’s insane streak of six straight games with more than 125 receiving yards, yet he still delivered five first downs and the touchdown that put his team up 28-17 against the Cowboys. Once again, he ranks behind only Cheetah with 1005 receiving yards and 46 first downs on five fewer targets (92) and as part of an offense that averages 1.6 yards fewer per play than the Dolphins. While quarterback Jalen Hurts remains a nightmare for defenses to deal with as a scrambler and he’s shown incredible toughness this season, his efficiency has certainly declined from a year ago. Despite that, Brown ranks in yards per route run (3.2 YRR) and is only one off the top mark in catches of 20+ yards (18). Jalen relies heavily on his number one target, as Brown has the highest share of the team’s air yardage (48.6%), leads the league with a 50%(!) target rate against true man-coverage and has accounted for 41.9% of their conversions through the air on third downs. Whether it’s snatching the ball away from defenders draped all over him at the catch point or shrugging off would-be-tacklers once the ball is in his hands, A.J. has been an absolute beast. He has hauled in 63.2% of his contested targets and among the 15 receivers with 50+ catches, he’s averaging nearly a full yard more above expectation after the catch (+2.1 YAC), according to Next Gen Stats.

Last but definitely not least here is Tyreek Hill, who does certainly have a case to be made for being the favorite right now. As I mentioned with Tua already, the Dolphins' offense is number one across all the major categories, with 45 yards more per game (435.2 YPG), 0.8 yards more per play (8.1) and 3.7 points more per game (31.7 PPG) than the next-closest team. And as well as Tua has run the show, Tyreek is the straw that stirs the drink. Not only does he lead the league in yards (1076) and touchdowns (eight) through the air, but even though he’s tied for the most targets (97), he’s also incredibly efficient in regard to when he’s out in the pattern – he averages nearly a full yard more per route run than any other pass-catcher this season (4.30) and the mark that lead the league last season – also set by Hill. With the way Mike McDaniel allows him to get running starts and off motion and work out stacks, he puts defenses in a bind constantly, even though he regularly ends up running off coverage and helping create green grass for his teammates. Yet, if defenses just isolate him one time on the backside, he’ll run by corners in just a couple of steps, to punish single-high looks. Among the 15 receivers with 50+ catches so far, Tyreek ranks second in yards per target (11.1 YPT) and number one with 6.1 yards after the catch on average. Last season, we saw the Dolphins rely on hitting windows they created with their route spacing, but there wasn’t a ton of YAC. They got back to hitting Cheetah on the run and he’s killing angles as well as breaking angles yet again. The two reasons he’s “only” at number three is his contested-catch rate going down to just 25.0% and in Miami’s three losses, opponents were able to hold him in check largely, averaging just under 70 yards and only scoring once total against the Bills, Eagles and Chiefs.

Honorable mentions: Travis Etienne & Stefon Diggs

Defensive Player of the Year:

1. Myles Garrett

2. Roquan Smith

3. T.J. Watt

This is obviously still my personal opinion and you can feel free to disagree with it, but being able to put the exact same names here at numbers one and two as I had in my full-season predictions, after being told I was completely off, is pretty satisfying. Back then I also realized – inconceivably for me – that the general public doesn’t consider Myles Garrett in that elite tier with names like Micah Parsons (thanks to playing for the biggest brand in the NFL), Nick Bosa or T.J. Watt (due to their well-regarded family name). The crazy part about that is he’s right there with Watt for the best mark ever in sacks per game (0.91). So I’m happy to see him finally get the national recognition he deserves, leading the way for the number one defense in yards per game (by 28 yards – 234.8 YPG), in terms of DVOA (-32.2%), EPA per play (-0.240) and success rate allowed (33.0%). They’ve done so despite facing three of the top-10 offenses by DVOA and success rate. DC Jim Schwartz deserves a lot of credit for how he’s deploying the pieces at hand, where it’s really about how tightly they contest receivers on the back end combined with their rush getting home, but Flash Garrett is like the queen on the chess board for them. When he’s lined up on the edge, you have to slide protection that way or provide chip help, which ends up creating one-on-ones for his teammates, yet then he’s an absolute menace standing up over the interior line, where he’s practicing his cross-over before putting blockers into catch-up mode instantly by winning against one half of the man. His combination of power, length, flexibility and fluidity to create favorable angles and finish his rushes is second to none. Myles is just half a sack (9.5) and one QB hit (18) of the top marks in the league, and while he’s currently “only” tied for eighth in total pressures (39), if you go by pressures per pass-rush snap, he actually has the second-highest success rate among guys with 200+ such opportunities (18.0%), despite being double-teamed at the highest rate for anybody at the position (31.0%).

I realize it’s pretty unlikely to see an off-ball linebacker win this award with the gaudy numbers pass-rushers put up in today’s aerial-oriented style of play, but Roquan Smith is the most integral piece on arguably the best defenses in the NFL right now. So while the standard for the voting process is different than league MVP, I believe it should be treated at least somewhat similarly and we’ve evolved as a football-watching community to a point, where we can look beyond the individual numbers. Through nine games, the 2023 Ravens defense is allowing a touchdown on only 8.7% of opposing drives. Since 2000 (as far back as TruMediaSports has data), only one defense has allowed opponents to score touchdowns at a lower rate of their drives (8.2%) – the 2000 Ravens. And guess who won Defensive Player of the Year and Super Bowl MVP that season? – Their incredible middle linebacker Ray Lewis. In his second season back in Baltimore, DC Mike Macdonald has turned himself into truly one of the elite play-callers on that side of the ball, in terms of taking away the staples of opposing offenses and then all the different looks he’ll throw at opponents on third downs. He has a bunch of unique players at hand, giving new life to the careers of aging veterans and putting lesser-known names on the map. However, for this system to work the way he does, he needs this incredibly smart rangy player in the middle of it all. Smith shows a tremendous understanding of spacing and how opponents want to attack them through the air, regularly occupying a body in protection after being mugged, then flying underneath routes in order to make quarterbacks come off them, before racing up and making a drive-ending stop. While he doesn’t have the same backfield production as running mate Patrick Queen, he allows that guy to have as much success going forward by cleaning up for him, while having broken up five passes and only missed two of 87 attempted tackles (2.2%). Looking through the betting odds, Roquan is currently 101-to-1, which is unfathomable to me, in part because I believe that’s the same number he was listed at pre-season as well.

For number three, I could have gone a lot of different ways, with Micah Parsons, Josh Allen and Maxx Crosby having absolutely dominant stretches of their own in terms of edge defenders, but nobody has made more game-altering plays from that position this year than T.J. Watt. I’ll get to head coach Mike Tomlin’s mind-boggling ability to keep his team in games despite being the inferior team, but a large portion of their lackluster offense is offset by Watt and company wreaking havoc and changing the complexity of contests. And the Steelers' defense overall is a definite plus, but I wouldn’t necessarily call them dominant as a group – certainly not in a tier with the Browns and Ravens for that matter – because on paper their linebackers and cornerbacks (outside of rookie Joey Porter Jr.) are actually below average, which is which they’re allowing the eighth-highest mark in yards per play (5.5 YPP). So them being 5-3 on the season almost makes no sense by the numbers, but then you look at each of those wins – Watt scored the game-winning TD on a scoop-and-score against the Browns, he had five combined sacks and QB hits against the Raiders, whilst being in Jimmy G’s face for a couple of interceptions, he ended the Ravens’ final two drives by jumping on a loose ball and getting the game-sealing sack, he had an amazing interception that completely flipped the momentum on the opening drive of the second half against the Rams, where he perfectly read a pass concept whilst being forced to play off-ball by the opponent’s design, and then he was heating up Titans rookie Will Levis regularly this past Thursday Night. Nobody has filled the stat sheet quite like number 90 for the Steelers. He is tied for second in sacks (9.5) and QB hits (18), along with having forced two and recovered three fumbles (one returned for a touchdown), recording that one pick and six more passes batted down at the line. The only reason I don’t have him even higher – his pressure rate on a per-snap basis isn’t quite up there with the best. However, to be fair, he also hasn’t been set up in many positive game-script situations.

Honorable mentions: Micah Parsons, Dexter Lawrence, Josh Allen, Maxx Crosby, Fred Warner & Danielle Hunter

Offensive Rookie of the Year:

1. C.J. Stroud

2. Puka Nacua

3, Bijan Robinson

While we’ve seen a couple of questionable choices of quarterbacks over skill-position players over the last several years – Kyler Murray over Josh Jacobs in 2019 and Dak Prescott over teammate (and the league’s leading rusher) Ezekiel Elliott in 2016 – this is far less of a QB award than you’d think initially. With that being said, while I’m not giving that position preferential treatment, my choosing Stroud here is a sign of how tremendous he’s been when he’s competing with a guy who currently ranks fourth among all players in receiving yards. We have had bigger “rookie phenoms” in terms of the athletic skill set, but the fact Stroud never actually looked like a guy in his first season at the game’s most difficult position is actually insane. This is obviously coming off a performance against the Buccaneers, in which he threw for a rookie-record 470 yards and five touchdowns, including the game-winner with just six seconds left. However, he’s been playing excellent all season long, ranking third in yards per pass attempt (8.1) and featuring the league’s best touchdown-to-interception ratio (14-to-1). The most impressive statistic to me, however – the Texans currently are the number nine offense in both EPA per play and DVOA. That’s after ranking dead-last and second-to-last in those two categories last year and their running backs this season averaging just 3.1 yards per rush (3.3 as a team – 30th). And Stroud has been doing this behind what we perceived to be a below-average offensive line and throwing to a below-average receiving corp coming into the year. This team has no business sitting at .500 – and that includes a couple of field goals with time running out by their opponents. They played the first month of the season with four of their five slated starters on the O-line out, their top-three pick at corner from last year was placed on IR after week two and this past Sunday, they even needed a backup running back to jump in at kicker. I love the coaching staff in Houston, but a rookie QB isn’t supposed to cover up those kinds of holes as Stroud is doing.

As I mentioned – Puka Nacua currently is fourth league-wide in receiving yards and tied for fourth in catches, behind only Tyreek Hill, A.J. Brown and Stefon Diggs respectively. Among those three names, only Brown hasn’t been an All-Pro selection multiple times and all of them made the cut last year. So for this guy to come in as a fifth-rounder and produce at that type of level – being relied upon as the number one target over the first month of the season without Cooper Kupp – is truly remarkable. And his numbers would be even better if he didn’t have Brett Rypien trying to throw the ball to him the last one-and-a-half games. Prior to that, nobody had caught more passes total and only once did Puka have less than 71 receiving yards in a game. When Matt Stafford has been slinging it around for L.A., we’ve seen Nacua and Kupp co-exist, because as I verbatim outlined in my analysis of the Rams draft class, I thought the rookie could turn into head coach Sean McVay’s new version of Robert Woods. He does a lot of the stuff that guy used to for years in that offense, where he’s trusted with crack blocks at the point of attack and is asked to insert against a linebacker in the run game, they put the ball in his hands on crossers and quick screens, but then also we’ve seen him win on the perimeter in isolated situations. His body control to adjust for the ball and then the physicality with the ball in his hands are highly impressive. And for some reason, people have this image in their heads about Puka just being this smart route-runner, who eats on option routes and winning against zone coverage. The fact is, he is tied for third league-wide – with Tyreek freaking Hill – in catches of 20+ yards (16). I’d say early on the target share was a little inflated, but more importantly, only Tyreek has dropped more passes so far than this rookie (seven).

You can certainly argue for a couple of other names here to conclude the list based on the numbers they’ve put up, but I could not punish a fantastic player for his coach not allowing him to shine as much or as bright as he should. Taking positional value out of the equation, Bijan Robinson was my number two overall prospect in this past draft class and I don’t really feel any different at this point about that choice. I put together a super extensive video breakdown of why the Falcons' offense would become one of the toughest units to deal with in 2023 in the offseason, but due to inconsistent quarterback play, poor red-zone play-calling, turnovers and other factors, they simply have been far off my lofty expectations. They rank 22nd or worse in DVOA, EPA per play, success rate and most importantly – points per game (18.4 PPG). My number one advice to head coach Arthur Smith would be to stop this petty back-and-forth with the media and just put the ball in the hands of his incredibly talented rookie running back. Watching Atlanta on a weekly basis, while Tyler Allgeier is a hard-nosed runner who justifies a certain role, every time he touches the ball instead of Bijan, I feel like they’re losing an immense amount of dynamism. As soon as the former Texas superstar gets it, you start holding your breath, because his initial burst, the ability to make defenders miss without any wasted movement, and his skill in the open field are truly special. That is not just a metaphoric feeling – the rookie literally averages 1.8(!) yards more per carry (5.0) and he’s turning his touches into first downs at a 7% higher rate (28.2%). Bijan ranks fourth among all players with 5+ carries per week in rushing yards over expected per attempt (+1.04), according to Next Gen Stats, and he’s averaging 7.9 yards after the catch. I showed a few weeks ago how he was responsible for a couple of interceptions and he’s fumbled twice, but with his natural receiving skills and explosive, he should already be a fantasy and real-life superstar, rather than sitting at one(!) touch inside the opposing five-yard line.

Honorable mentions: De’Von Achane & Sam LaPorta

Defensive Rookie of the Year:

1. Jalen Carter

2. Devon Witherspoon

3. Will Anderson Jr.

This Defensive Rookie of the Year race is a pretty strong one compared to past years, where we’ve had a clear-cut favorite for the majority of the season, and I’m happy to see the three names here being among the top-four of my pre-season predictions. To be fair, all of them were drafted in the top 10 back in late April, but the name at the top was actually fourth for me heading into the year, despite being my highest-ranked prospect coming in. The reason I thought Jalen Carter may not quite be able to take home the honors was that he may just not play enough on this stacked Eagles D-line – and I was right about that part, as he’s played more than 50% of snaps just twice for the year (49% on average, with one game missed), but he’s still found ways to show off his dominance with limited opportunities. Among rookie defenders, Carter is tied for second in sacks (4.0), tackles for loss (five) and QB hits (seven), despite the guys ahead of him in those categories all having played at least 116 additional snaps. Even more impressive, this guy has the highest pass-rush win rate among all interior D-linemen in the entire league at 22%, according to ESPN analytics – just ahead of All-Pros Dexter Lawrence and Aaron Donald. While the competition is certainly stronger than it was even in the SEC with Georgia, he still looks like a rolling ball of butcher knives out there, who has overwhelmed the opposing interior for the most part, until somewhat finding his match this past week in Cowboys second-year guard Tyler Smith. Carter’s ability to knife into the backfield and provide this disruption in the run game has been on display, you rarely see him get moved off the line on combos and what’s crazy about his efficiency rushing the passer is that he’s not even close to having a fully-developed arsenal of moves, relying on the high swim – at times combined with working across the face of guards – and the bull-rush paired with grabbing cloth to free himself late.

While Carter was my top-ranked prospect in this past class, my most fun watch was Devon Witherspoon at Illinois. Seeing this guy click-and-close on routes, be able to get back in phase after losing early on, but then also fly downhill and blow up bigger ball carriers was just awesome – and he’s continued to do so in the NFL. Obviously, his major breakout performance came back in week four on Monday Night against the Giants, when he had a 97-yard pick-six, two sacks, three QB hits and two tackles for loss. Those remain the only numbers he’s logged in those categories, sliding inside to the nickelback spot for that game. Thanks to his physicality and smarts, I really like him in that role, but after heading to Cincinnati the following week, he’s gone back to primarily lining up on the outside. With that being said, just because he doesn’t have the backfield production or intercepted any other passes, doesn’t mean he hasn’t been impactful in any way. Since missing the season-opener for Seattle, he has played every single snap for the Hawks defense, holding opponents to 28 completions for 253 yards and two touchdowns across 51 targets (54.9% completion rate), compared to his one INT and nine more passes broken up. That puts him at a passer rating responsible for of 73.4 and a yards-per-target mark of 5.0 – for reference, Sauce Gardner as an All-Pro corner and DPOY last season was at 5.3 YPT. Even coming off a 37-3 shellacking at the hands of the Ravens, Seattle ranks 11th in dropback EPA and even with Riq Woolen coming off a sensational rookie campaign himself, Witherspoon has been their most reliable player in coverage, although he needs to improve as a tackler (eight misses on 47 attempts). His ability to play inside and out, and make plays in the run-and-pass game could pay major dividends down the road for what had been a very stingy Seattle team prior to this past Sunday.

My prediction for who would win this award before the season started was the first non-quarterback off the board, as they traded up to number three overall, in order to pick quarterback C.J. Stroud and edge defender Will Anderson Jr. back-to-back, as cornerstone pieces of their franchise on both sides of the ball. I’d say so far that has definitely worked out. Some of the casual observers may disagree about Anderson living up to the hype when they see he’s only registered two sacks so far, but he has nine additional hits on opposing quarterbacks, and looking at the ESPN Analytics data, he's actually tied for third among edge defenders with a pass-rush win rate of 27% – behind only Micah Parsons and Myles Garrett. Being able to “finish” his rushes is a major part for young D-linemen to learn, but you definitely feel the impact this guy has made on the Texans' defense, where they ask their edge guys to work from those wide alignments and use tilted angles to collapse the pocket from both sides, forcing quarterbacks to step up, whilst pushing the interior line backward. That’s why Houston is tied for the fourth-fewest sacks across the NFL (17) despite being right outside the top 10 in pressure rate as a team (24.4%). In terms of the run game, he can fly down the line for quick stops when left unblocked, man-handle tight-ends near the point of attack and what I appreciated about him always at Alabama was the combination of leverage and extension he played with to set a physical edge 240-245 pounds. Thanks to improved linebacker play and Anderson’s presence, they’re top-ten in rushing success rate (36.4%) and yards per rush (3.8 YPA), while overall having been more than respectable as a unit, despite not having their OTHER number three overall pick at corner in Derek Stingley from a year ago since week two.

Honorable mentions: Brian Branch, Tuli Tuipulotu & Byron Young

Comeback Player of the Year:

1. Tua Tagovailoa

2. Breece Hall

3. Matthew Stafford

I’m not going to spend too much time talking about this award because the parameters of how this is voted for simply aren’t defined properly. It basically just states “an NFL player who has shown perseverance in overcoming adversity”. We saw that last year when Geno Smith legitimately played at like a top-ten quarterback in the league by all the numbers and the eye test, but I’m not sure “coming back” from sitting on the bench should qualify him. This year, it almost seemed like a foregone conclusion that Damar Hamlin would win it if he just stepped on an NFL field at all, yet he’s only even been active for one game so far. So now that feels a little weird.

I went with Tua at number one, because he went from being a question mark about how much longer his pro career may last due to multiple concussions last season to being an MVP candidate for the most explosive offense in the league, as described in that first category. That thought thankfully hasn’t entered our mind since and he’s actually improved from last year, contributing more beyond the system than what he had shown prior.

Breece Hall came in second for me, since he was off to a sensational start as a rookie, turning 99 touches into 681 yards and five touchdowns through the first six-and-a-half weeks, before tearing his ACL – and you saw the offense drop off substantially once he was out, ultimately benching Zach Wilson and winning just two of their remaining ten games, following a 5-2 start. The Jets tried to bring him on slowly this season, but the explosiveness has been on display pretty much from the start, turning 11 opportunities into 147 in the opener against the Bills. The efficiency has been down a little bit, with a lot of obvious running downs where he gets hit behind the line of scrimmage, but he still averages just under six yards per carry as the only thing this offense hopes will pop any given week.

There’s no need to talk too much about Matt Stafford at this point after I sang my praises of him three weeks ago when I had him at number six as part of “the one-man shows” of my quarterback rankings. Back then I said he’s the most fun quarterback to watch right now and while Lamar is certainly challenging him for that title, if his absence with a banged-up thumb is limited to just last week and he continues at a similar pace, he absolutely has to be considered. Particularly with what the sentiment on him and the Rams as a whole was before the year kicked off, coming off a neck injury as the latest in line of an extensive medical history, which put his season on ice, following a 3-6 start. The traditional stats will tell he’s only completing just under 60% of his passes, with eight touchdowns compared to seven interceptions, but those don’t even come close to encapsulating the level he’s played, as he has the league’s top big-time throw (7.0%) vs. turnover-worth play rate (2.0%).

Honorable mentions: Damar Hamlin

San Francisco 49ers v Pittsburgh Steelers

Coach of the Year:

1. Mike Tomlin

2. Dan Campbell

3. Mike McDaniel

Right off the bat, this award typically goes to either the coach of the best team in the NFL, if it became the storyline of the season, or the guy in charge of a franchise, that significantly exceeds its pre-season expectations or has overcome adversity throughout the year. John Harbaugh certainly deserves consideration for running what I believe currently is the best all-around team in the NFL and looking at this as more of a recognition of the entire coaching staff, they’ve been outstanding, but I predicted them to win 11 games, and the two things Harbaugh should have his eye on the most – special teams and fourth-down aggressiveness – they’re average in both.

The Steelers may just be the worst 5-3 team I’ve seen in my life. By now, we all know that they’ve been outgained by their opponents in all eight of their games. Of the 34 teams in NFL history that’s true, they are the only one with a winning record, and only the Broncos – who were responsible for the most yards surrendered in any game ever, when Miami put 70 points on them – have a worse yardage differential (-790 yards) this season. It really doesn’t even make sense, especially considering in their three losses, they were defeated by a combined score of 80-to-23, yet here they sit again. I’ve already given T.J. Watt his flowers and as bad as the offense has been, Kenny Pickett has delivered with the game on the line (three game-winning drives), but the one constant for this organization for the last 17(!) years by now is the guy wearing that black cap on the sideline. Mike Tomlin just has these guys believing at all times. There have been so many times this season where the other side was clearly superior, yet Pittsburgh somehow hung around and was able to pull through in all five of their one-possession games. That toughness and belief his troops bring to the table is even more insane when your offense has to be infuriating to watch for large stretches of games, being in the bottom three in yards and points created, with your fans openly calling for your OC to be fired whenever possible. We can argue Tomlin and the organization should have made a move at offensive coordinator and this would be over pretty quickly when I look at what Matt Canada has brought to the table, but for that environment to elevate players in high-leverage moments and for them to be able to weather the storm the way they do, with the steady presence of the guy running the show, not enough can be said.

For this Lions organization, this is an acknowledgment of what the coaching staff has done over the last calendar year basically, as since their 1-6 start in 2022, they’ve won 14 of 18 games and two of their four losses came on a game-winning field goal and in overtime, without their offense possessing the ball, respectively. Detroit was the NFC North favorite and they’ve certainly benefitted from their rivals going a combined 10-and-16, but I expected there to be some negative regression, considering how turnover differential and less stable variables were tilted in their favor this past season. However, Dan Campbell has run a steady ship and the team overall is actually significantly better overall I’d argue, as they rank fourth in overall DVOA, with their defense improving from 27th all the way to eighth league-wide in that metric. As a credit to Lieutenant Dan, he was able to retain one of the premier offensive coordinators in the league in Ben Johnson and stuck through some dark times with counterpart Aaron Glenn on the defensive side of the ball. I know this team got blown out 38-6 at Baltimore and that’s burned into people’s minds, but they won at Kansas City in the season kickoff game, when the crowd is always hyped up to see their team hang that Super Bowl banner (even if KC was missing two key pieces), and then their five other victories all came by at least 12 points. When you look at Detroit’s stars on offense, you have a kick-ass O-line and three guys people essentially didn’t want – Jared Goff packaged with extra picks being shipped off for a different QB, David Montgomery signing in free agency from the rival Bears and third-round receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown. On defense, Aidan Hutchinson and maybe C.J. Gardner-Johnson are the only names casual fans would probably know. And this is a credit to GM Brad Holmes for just drafting good football players instead of what is perceived as “high-value positions”, but this coaching staff has done a great job of getting their rookie class acclimated and turning them into key contributors right off the bat.

Third here, I’m still going to put Mike McDaniel, primarily for having constructed an offense that was on a historical pace until three weeks ago and has some wrinkles to it that we’ve never seen. In particular that quick out motion they made prominent this year has been adopted by colleges all across the NFL and it’s also trickled down to the lower ranks of football. However, just in general they stress defensive rules and create favorable opportunities in both facets of the game is special and they do it better than anybody out there trying to copy them. We’ve seen this group be held to just 24 points (plus a defensive touchdown) by the Eagles and Chiefs in two of the last three weeks, which is where you see the limitations of having what I’d perceive a “great system quarterback” in Tua, who still has some trouble with the defensive picture changing post-snap and not having the physical capability to create beyond the Xs and Os. With that being said, Miami still ranks first in yards and points per drive and game each, as well as yards per play. What’s been so impressive about them is that they’ve dominated through the air and on the ground, as they rank second in both categories in terms of EPA per play, and they average 1.1(!) yards more per carry than any other team in the league. So even though we have to see if McDaniel can continue to evolve his approach to challenge the true contenders in the AFC, they’ve been an elite offense by any measure, regularly skipping third downs to take pressure off their QB and cashing in for touchdowns at the highest rate of their third-down possessions (75.0%). So for their innovative play-caller to more than just compensate for a defense and special teams unit that rank 24th and 25th in DVOA respectively and sit atop the AFC East is very impressive. Now with DC Vic Fangio getting his pieces back, there should be less pressure on this high-scoring machinery.

Honorable mentions: Nick Sirianni, John Harbaugh, Doug Pederson, & DeMeco Ryans

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