IPL 2024 playoff scenarios: How can RR secure a top two finish despite their 5-wicket defeat to PBKS?

The Rajasthan Royals (RR) continued their untimely slide in IPL 2024 with a five-wicket defeat to the Punjab Kings (PBKS) in Guwahati on May 15.

After winning eight out of their first nine games, RR have lost four straight to remain on 16 points in 13 outings. In first place for most of the season, until the Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) recently overtook them, RR is now in jeopardy of not even finishing in the top two.

While they have qualified for the playoffs, finishing in the top two compared to third or fourth offers a team two cracks at qualifying for the final. Despite the four-game skid, RR still have a good chance at finishing second at the end of the league stage.

Should they win their final game against KKR, RR will finish on 18 points, a figure only the SunRisers Hyderabad (SRH) can reach if they win both their remaining matches. However, RR have the benefit of playing the final game of the league stage, helping them figure out the margin of victory needed should SRH win both their matches and leapfrog RR on net run-rate.

Yet, a defeat in their final outing will severely dampen RR's chances for a top two finish. They will stay on 16 points, which means SRH will overtake them to second place if they win their final two matches. SRH can also do the same if they win one of their two encounters but leapfrog RR's Net run rate while both teams finish on 16 points.

RR losing their final game will also open the gate for the Chennai Super Kings (CSK), who are currently on 14 points with a match left. Should CSK win their league stage finale followed by RR losing theirs, both teams will finish on 16 points and CSK could overtake RR in the standings by virtue of a better Net run rate.

As things stand, RR's Net run rate of +0.273 is worse than SRH's at +0.406 and CSK's at +0.528.

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"We have to sit back and accept that we are going through failures" - Sanju Samson

RR skipper Sanju Samson called on the players to display character to dig the team out of their losing streak after the defeat to PBKS.

The side endured a similar fall in the second half of last season to miss the playoffs after being one of the pre-tournament favorites.

At the post-match presentation, Samson said:

"We have to sit back and accept that we are going through failures, have lost four games on the trot. Got to find out what's not working out for us as a team. Somebody needs to step up, we have so many match-winners in the team. This is the time we need to show character."

RR will play table-toppers KKR in their final league stage game in Guwahati in the night match of the doubleheader on Sunday, May 19.