India vs South Africa Match Prediction: Who will win today's 1st Test match?

Eight Test series in South Africa, zero wins. Two World Test Championship finals, zero wins.

Team India have been a dominant force in Test cricket over the last few years, but there are still a couple of records they'd like to set straight during the ongoing 2023-25 WTC cycle.

South Africa are excellent at home, and excellent at SuperSport Park in Centurion. But Rohit Sharma and Co. will look to breach that fortress for the second series running, and in the process, make the final of the WTC for the third cycle running. The Boxing Day Test will commence on Tuesday, December 26.

The last time India and South Africa played a Test in Centurion, the former won by 117 runs. The batting lineups of both teams are almost entirely new-look, and there are a couple of changes expected in the bowling departments as well. So, while there are a few parallels that can be drawn, a different assignment altogether is on the cards.

Batting in South Africa, where pace and bounce are strong forces, is never easy. India's challenge is made more difficult by the fact that pitches in the Rainbow Nation are notoriously unpredictable, often changing face within a few hours to completely disrupt plans.

The general expectation is that the Centurion deck will quicken on Days 2 and 3 before slowing down again, and the Proteas have a pace battery waiting to be unleashed. During the last edition of the Freedom Trophy, Kagiso Rabada, Marco Jansen and Lungi Ngidi picked up a combined 54 wickets, with all three having sub-10 averages.

Meanwhile, outgoing former skipper Dean Elgar will want to sign off on a high. There's every chance that a few of the Indian batters are on their last tour of South Africa, and they'll want to leave an impression as well.

All in all, one of the most gripping Test fixtures in the 21st century, India vs South Africa, is all set to hit screens on Tuesday. Can the visitors conquer another territory? Or will they fall agonizingly short once again?

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Rohit Sharma and Yashasvi Jaiswal will have Rabada and Jansen to counter, and that will be anything but easy. South Africa's other fast bowlers, Gerald Coetzee and Ngidi, won't be any pushovers either.

So how should Rohit and Jaiswal ideally approach the innings? In the West Indies earlier this year, they bridged aggression and caution well, and a slightly freer outlook could yield rich dividends at a venue where pace and bounce dominate visiting batters.

Shubman Gill, Shreyas Iyer, and KL Rahul might all be out of place in the middle order. While Gill hasn't set the Test arena on fire just yet, Iyer has clear issues while countering hit-the-deck bowling. Rahul, meanwhile, will don the gloves for the first time in Tests, and how he fares will be something to keep an eye on.

South Africa have concerns of their own, though. Rabada and Ngidi have only recently recovered from injuries, and their batting lineup wears a fresh look. David Bedingham and Keegan Petersen are locked in a shootout for a middle-order spot, while Tony de Zorzi is expected to slot in at No. 3 despite not having much Test experience.

Both batting units don't look too potent, but India at least have the experience of Virat Kohli to fall back on. The senior batter is the only Indian to average more than 50 on South African soil (min. 3 Tests) and will no doubt be on top of his preparations for yet another high-octane overseas assignment.

The key to India's victory will lie in how the supporting pacers, namely Mohammed Siraj, Prasidh Krishna, and Shardul Thakur, fare with their accuracy. They'll need to be on the money to give Jasprit Bumrah company, and if they don't, the Proteas could be the favorites to extend their home dominance.

As things stand, India are slightly better on paper, although South Africa have every chance of beating them. With rain on the forecast for more than one day, a result might not be possible. If it is, though, the visitors could be the favorites by the barest of margins.

Prediction: India to win the 1st Test.